While I'm an admitted proponent of the power of the Net Generation ( hence my new book), I'm also fascinated by the phenomenon of declining birth rates in much of the Western world and what this will mean for future generations, let alone the future of our workplaces and economies. As part of our Government 2.0 research program, Amy Cortese and Dan Herman recently completed a piece that seeks to address those questions. It has yet to be released, but in the meantime I thought I'd point you towards a recent article by Russell Shorto from the New York Times. The article, entitled No Babies?, discusses declining global birth rates and the various attempts by government to reverse the trend.

Shorto notes,

For the first time on record, birthrates in southern and Eastern Europe had dropped below 1.3 [births per woman.] For the demographers, this number had a special mathematical portent. At that rate, a country's population would be cut in half in 45 years, creating a falling-off-a-cliff effect from which it would be nearly impossible to recover.

Interestingly, a country's birthrate rises almost proportionally to its female participation rate in the workforce. But in Southern and Eastern Europe, societal pressures for women to stay at home after their first child conflicts with inflation that has seen the traditional single earner model become no longer viable. My colleague Dan is a huge fan of the theory of the Demographic Transition. Ask him about it sometime over cocktails and he'll start drawing charts on the nearest wall. To avoid that vandalism, this chart works just as well:

The West is in Stage 4- low birth rates and contractionary pressure on the population. If it wasn't for increased immigration, (which, by the way, explains why the US has been able to keep its birth rate above replacement) even more countries would be headed for the dramatic bifurcation of their populations brought about by an ageing population and below-replacement birth rates.

So what does this mean? While Shorto focuses on the incentives for more babies, whether in the form of cash payment or more flexible environments for both parents, we're also going to have to do a much better job at taking care of our older citizens, notably allowing them the flexibility to stay or re-enter the workforce, let alone the significant reforms of pension and healthcare systems that will be needed to ensure that service provision keeps pace with demand.

There needs to be a fundamental change in perception of what it means to be old. As former British Prime Minister Tony Blair noted:

For government, the challenge is to change attitudes and preconceptions about what an aging society means and to stimulate innovative ideas and technologies to transform older lives.

Governments are already lifting mandatory retirement ages but can do more to encourage employers to provide older workers with flexible options, such as phased retirement, part-time hours, telecommuting and other flexible arrangements, and mentoring opportunities.

It is here that Web 2.0 technologies can play a critical role. For example, The State of California has won accolades for Boomerang, a new online job matching service that links retiring state employees with state offices that need experienced temporary or part-time help. YourEncore.com is another great tool that provides a similar service. Issues such as immigration and incentives play an equally important role but ultimately all of these issues speak to the need for a dramatic shift in how both the public and private sectors tap talent markets and facilitate flexible working roles for diverse populations, be that defined by age, gender, language, etc.

And so what does it mean for the Net Generation? It means this generation will, more than any other, have to step up to the plate to work more productively and efficiently in an increasingly diverse world. Are they up for it? Given the research we're doing on their norms, notably their predisposition to collaboration and teamwork, I definitely think so.